Guide

CS2 trade-up guide: collections, odds and Covert inputs

A trade-up consumes its inputs for one outcome. Before comparing an estimated return, verify the contract type, input eligibility and every possible result. A calculator is not a guaranteed-profit strategy.

Editorial review: 2026-10-27. Price snapshot: 2026-10-27 · Skinport · USD.

Reference prices, not live offers. Suggested values may replace unavailable listings; fees, rare patterns and applied sticker premiums are not included. Missing prices are not zero.

Data and examples

The Phoenix Collection: 4 Restricted → 3 Classified.

Skin	Exterior	USD	Float	Collection / case
FAMAS \| Sergeant	Battle-Scarred	$1.58	0.10–1.00	The Phoenix Collection
MAC-10 \| Heat	Battle-Scarred	$2.06	0.00–1.00	The Phoenix Collection
SG 553 \| Pulse	Battle-Scarred	$2.09	0.10–0.60	The Phoenix Collection
USP-S \| Guardian	Field-Tested	$2.29	0.00–0.38	The Phoenix Collection

Ten copies of FAMAS | Sergeant (Battle-Scarred): $15.80. Illustrative input subtotal only; no profit or target-float claim.

AK-47 | Redline: 0.10–0.70; 33.33% in the single-collection model
Nova | Antique: 0.00–0.30; 33.33% in the single-collection model
P90 | Trigon: 0.08–0.75; 33.33% in the single-collection model

Standard contracts and the Covert exception

A standard eligible weapon-skin contract uses ten inputs of the same quality for an outcome of the next quality. Do not mix ordinary and StatTrak inputs or assume every item is eligible. Check the selection accepted by the game before buying inputs.

Valve extended contracts on 22 October 2025: five regular Covert inputs can produce a regular knife or gloves from a collection of an input; five StatTrak Covert inputs can produce a StatTrak knife. This exception is why old guides saying that Covert skins can never be traded up are incomplete.

Read the collection pool before the expected value

The example below selects one collection represented in the local catalog, shows eligible inputs at a standard grade and lists the next-grade outcomes. The model distributes a collection's probability contribution across its outcomes. Mixing collections changes that distribution; it does not simply select the most expensive result.

For the illustration we use ten copies of one example input. The displayed input subtotal is based on its lowest recorded reference price, not on ten verified listings with the exact float you need. It is a coverage check, not a purchase recommendation.

Float assumptions and missing prices

SkinRate's calculator currently normalizes each input float to that finish's allowed range, averages those values and maps the result to each output's range. This is the calculator's community-derived model, not a formula published in the cited Valve announcement. Verify it against current game behavior before committing valuable items.

Expected value is a weighted average over repeated outcomes, not a promise for one contract. Missing outcome prices, unavailable inputs and sale fees can invalidate a profit estimate. Review every outcome, test the arithmetic and only use inputs you are willing to consume.

FAQ

Can Covert skins be used in a trade-up?

Yes. Valve's October 2025 update added five-item Covert contracts. Regular inputs can yield a regular knife or gloves; StatTrak inputs can yield a StatTrak knife from an input's collection.

Does positive expected value guarantee a profitable result?

No. It is an average under assumptions about probabilities and prices. A single result can be worth less than the inputs, and costs may not include fees.

Check the items and tools

Sources

Valve: Covert trade-up update, 22 October 2025