Guide
CS2 case simulator: real odds and model limitations
The simulator is free practice with virtual results. It does not open a Steam case, award a tradable skin or predict your next real drop. The table uses the Kilowatt pool saved in our data and the rarity weights used by the simulator.
Editorial review: . Price snapshot: · Skinport · USD.
Reference prices, not live offers. Suggested values may replace unavailable listings; fees, rare patterns and applied sticker premiums are not included. Missing prices are not zero.
Data and examples
| Rarity | Pool entries | Simulator chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 7 | 79.92% |
| Restricted | 5 | 15.98% |
| Classified | 3 | 3.20% |
| Covert | 2 | 0.64% |
| Rare Special | 13 | 0.26% |
Published probabilities versus rounded weights
Perfect World's disclosure lists standard key-opened case rates of 79.923%, 15.985%, 3.197%, 0.639% and 0.256%, from Mil-Spec through Rare Special. Our simulator uses the rounded approximation shown in the table: 79.92%, 15.98%, 3.20%, 0.64% and 0.26%. These are close, but not identical.
The implementation chooses a rarity tier and then an entry uniformly within that pool. A pool entry can include a phase; the displayed entry count is not a count of independent knife models. Equal phase weights and the float-bucket model should not be read as a verified reproduction of every hidden game rule.
A long dry streak is possible
With independent simulated rolls, the chance of no rare special after n openings is (1 − 0.0026)^n. At 100 openings this is about 77.1%. The reciprocal, about 385, is an average waiting time in this model, not a guaranteed knife on opening 385.
Previous simulator results do not improve the next roll. The separate 10% StatTrak draw only applies to eligible items. The simulator also generates float within the selected finish's allowed range; those details are model assumptions rather than a promise about real inventory drops.
Read expected value as an estimate
The displayed value uses reference prices and the simulator's wear and StatTrak model. Missing exact prices may fall back to other available values, so an attractive simulated result is not a matching cash offer. The case price and $2.49 key reference are USD assumptions, not a universal checkout total.
A free simulator is useful for exploring contents and understanding variance. Do not use it to justify buying cases, recovering losses or expecting a particular reward. No real items are transferred by a simulated opening.
FAQ
Do I receive the simulated skin on Steam?
No. Results are virtual, with no tradable skin or cash reward.
Is a knife guaranteed after roughly 385 openings?
No. That number is the reciprocal of the simulator's 0.26% rare-special probability, not a guarantee. The next roll does not depend on a dry streak.
Check the items and tools
Sources
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